Final Report: Alameda Point Pro Forma Market Review, May 24, 2010

Prepared for:
City of Alameda
Prepared by:
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

Table of Contents

Key Findings

Home Prices
Construction Costs
Construction Cost Appreciation/Land Leveraging
Land Prices

Appendix A: The San Francisco Bay Area Economic Outlook
Appendix B: Bayport Sales Data
Appendix C: Average Home Affordability Multipliers
Appendix D: Residential Unit Value Trends 1988- 2009 (nominal $)
Appendix E: Case-Schiller U, S. Home Prices, Building Costs, Population , and Interest Rates, 1890- 2004
Appendix F: National Building Cost Manual for Single-Family
Direct Construction Costs (2010)

List of Tables
Table 1. Key Assumption Comparison
Table 2. Housing Distribution in Alameda (2008)
Table 3. Housing Foreclosures in Alameda (2002- 2009)
Table 4. Alameda Housing Values (constant $2010)
Table 5. Household Income Distribution in Alameda County (2008)
Table 6. Median Household Incomes and Home Value Multipliers (constant $2010)
Table 7. Alameda County Projections (2010- 2020)
Table 8. Residential Housing Appreciation and Inflation in Alameda (1989-2009)
Table 9. Alameda Point Price Point Forecast (2013- 2020)
Table 10. Alameda County Demand Distribution of Home Prices (2010-2020)
Table 11. Alameda and San Francisco County Projections for Households, Employment and Income (2010-2020)
Table 12, City of Alameda Projections for Households, Employment, and Income (2010-2020)
Table 13. Bay Area Appreciation Comparison (1995-2010)


Key Findings
After reviewing SunCal' s pro forma , EPS and the City have concerns about SunCal's assumptions, many of which appear to be overly optimistic. The following key findings address specific areas of concern in SunCal's financial analysis and EPS's recommended " normalized" post market recovery assumptions based on the market data presented in this analysis. Overly optimistic assumptions can significantly distort the economics of the analysis and expose the City and the Developer to unnecessary risks. Therefore, assumptions should be on the conservative side for purposes of underwriting the business terms of the Project.